Before I begin to share my calculations with you, I have to admit that I have not been a faithful follower of this tournament historically. However, due to the company that I keep of late, I have developed a greater interest in this sports phenomenon. Bear with me if my language isn’t my sports knowledge seems lacking. . .
So, as I am preparing for the NCAA basketball tournament, I have been doing some reading about the history of this championship. I have found some of the statistics to be extremely interesting.
Of most interest to me, was the win percentage during the first round of the tournament, using data starting in 1985. Some of the statistics make sense, such as 100% of #1 seeds have won that game or that the #2 seed beat the #15 seed 96% of the time. What doesn’t make sense to me is the drop in win percentage when you come to the #3 versus #14 seed. That has a drop of 12 percentage points to 84%. While that still shows that #3 wins the majority of the games, it is a significantly lower number of wins than the game one step higher.
Another first round match-up that shows a big decrease in wins is the #5 seeds against the #12 seed. The #5 seed wins 68% of the time, which is 12% less than the #6 versus #13 match. Seems odd mathematically, when most of the other differences are in the single digits.
Finally, the statistic that was most interesting to me was the win percentage of the #8 versus #9 seed game. Of course, being teams that should be nearly level in ability, one would expect the number to be approximately 50%. The win percentage is near that number, but it is upside down with #9 winning more often than #8. The #8 seed wins 46% of the time. Maybe it’s luckier to lose one more game during the regular season and get the #9 spot!
Regardless to statistics, this year’s March Madness will have its own predictable outcomes and incredible surprises that will provide us with entertainment, conversation for the water cooler, and new data to add to the history books.
